THE DYNAMICS OF INFRASTRUCTURE INVE STMENT IN THE MACROECONOMY OF UZBEKISTAN AND ITS IMPACT ON GDP GROWTH

Аннотация

This article examines the dynamics of infrastructure investment in the macroeconomy of
Uzbekistan over the period 2019–2024 and assesses its contribution to gross domestic product
(GDP) growth. The study is motivated by the rapid scaling-up of fixed-capital investment in the
country, the adoption of a dedicated public-private partnership (PPP) framework, and the need to
quantify the macroeconomic returns to infrastructure spending. Drawing on official statistics of
the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Uzbekistan, the World Bank, the Asian Development
Bank and the EBRD, the analysis combines descriptive time-series evidence with a multiplierbased estimation of the output response to infrastructure investment. The results show that fixedcapital investment expanded markedly, reaching an estimated 493.7 trillion soums (about US$38.2
billion) in 2024, equivalent to roughly one-third of GDP, while real GDP grew by 6.7 per cent in
the same year. Applying internationally documented public-investment multipliers, a fiscal
impulse equal to one per cent of GDP directed to infrastructure is estimated to raise output by
between 1.1 and 1.6 per cent over a five-year horizon. The paper concludes that infrastructure
investment—particularly when channelled through transparent PPP mechanisms—constitutes a
significant and durable driver of macroeconomic growth in Uzbekistan, but that its effectiveness
is conditioned by investment efficiency, fiscal space and the quality of project selection.